The first few months of 2003 were among the most critical and turbulent in the recent history of the Middle East. With American and British forces gathering on the Iraqi border, the war looked all but inevitable. But a tense and dramatic diplomatic maneuver was going on behind the scenes to prevent the invasion from getting underway before a single missile landed. Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, the founder and President of the United Arab Emirates, was at the centre of this “last-minute rescue mission”.
The UAE foreign policy initiative is one of the most remarkable chapters in the history of the foreign policy of the Gulf states, despite its often overlook significance in the history of the 2003 Iraq War and its long-term geopolitical implications. Sheikh Zayed had the bold idea of asking the Iraqi President, Mr Saddam Hussein, to step down voluntarily and to give him full legal immunity and safe asylum in the UAE.
This is the unheralded history of the United Arab Emirates trying to avert an impending war and alter the course of the modern Middle East.
The Dark Horizon of March 2003
International diplomacy had come to a boiling point by late February and early March 2003. The U.S. and its allies claimed Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and had not been cooperating with the U.N. inspectors. In the meantime, the leaders of the Arabs were acutely conscious of the consequences of such an invasion on the security, lives, and economy of the region.
Within the confines of Arab diplomacy panic was setting in. Most leaders recognized that if the war broke out between the superpower coalition and Iraq, Iraq would be left in ruins, neighboring countries would be left in turmoil, and a power vacuum would open up that could result in disaster. But the old-fashioned diplomacy of warning Washington was not working to stop the war machine.
Knowing that all the traditional diplomatic avenues were worn down, Sheikh Zayed knew that the only way to get rid of the justification for an invasion was to oust Saddam Hussein from power without shooting a bullet.
Exile for Saddam is the Bold UAE Proposal.
The UAE delegation presented an unprecedented peace initiative at the emergency Arab League summit in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt in March 2003.
The basic outlines of the UAE proposal were simple and straightforward:
- Voluntary Resignation: Saddam Hussein would accept within two weeks of making the offer to give up power.
- Guaranteed Immunity: Saddam Hussein and his immediate family would have had binding international and Arab guarantees that they would not be subject to prosecution or extradition in the future.
- Safe Asylum: The United Arab Emirates extended to Saddam and his family protection in their country.
- The United Nations and Arab League administration: In order to prevent chaos the United Nations and the Arab League would jointly oversee a transitional period in Iraq that would restore stability and organize peaceful governance.
This plan was a textbook example of statesmanship. Sheikh Zayed knew Saddam’s stubbornness and fear of prosecution would be two big obstacles to any voluntary departure. This would assure an honourable exit for Saddam, while avoiding the devastation of total war for millions of Iraqis.
The Secret Diplomacy Behind the Scenes
The proposal was not an instant outburst on top of a public mountain but was supported by intensive behind-the-scenes negotiations. UAE diplomats worked diligently to get implicit support from key international actors. Inside the city reports said elements within Washington were being briefed, a peaceful removal of Saddam would meet the ultimate geopolitical goal of regime change without the expense of a military campaign.
The plan had great potential and was identified by supporters. If Saddam Hussein had accepted the captivity deal, the whole rationale for the invasion would have been moot instantly. Iraq’s infrastructure would still be in place, hundreds of thousands of lives saved and decades of regional instability averted.
Summit Shock and the Rejection of the Plan
The Arab League summit in Sharm El Sheikh was a chaotic setting amid such high stakes. The UAE initiative hit the heads of state in the conference hall.
The plan was immediately opposed by a number of groups:
- The Iraqi Delegation: The fact that Iraqis suggested that it would be an insult to the sovereignty of Iraq and an act of surrender brought a storm of anger from the Iraqi authorities. They swiftly shot down any idea of a Saddam resignation.
- The Arab League Hesitation: Some Arab governments did not want to formally accept a plan which would set the direction of another sovereign Arab nation. The proposal was not formally adopted as a collective agreement of the summit due to bureaucratic wrangling, long-standing enmity and delays.
The plan languished, as the Arab League did not rally to it. In response, Saddam Hussein was defiant and believed the coalition could be wavering, and thus, would not consider agreeing to step down.Coalition forces began Operation Iraqi Freedom less than three weeks after the summit, on March 20, 2003.
Why the UAE Initiative Matters in Middle East History
In retrospect, 2003 was a momentous occasion in UAE political history with the UAE peace initiative being one of its highlights. It reflected the early hallmarks of active, independent and peace-oriented foreign policy in the country.
Sheikh Zayed’s leadership was decisive in taking calculated diplomatic risks to forestall the establishment of a humanitarian crisis. The initiative showcased the three main principles that still underpin UAE foreign policy today:
- Preventive Diplomacy: Taking steps proactively in order to solve the conflict of a region before it breaks out openly.
- Humanitarian Prioritization: putting the safety and well-being of innocent civilians first, over ideology.
- Pragmatic Mediation: The process of working creatively and realistically on complex political standstills.
The Middle East today could have been very different if the Arab world and the leadership in Iraq had embraced Sheikh Zayed’s concept.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1. Was there any official offer of asylum to Saddam Hussein from the UAE in 2003?
A1. Yes. The United Arab Emirates offered an idea at the Arab League summit in Sharm El Sheikh in March, 2003, that would have seen Saddam Hussein and his family living in exile in the UAE.
Q2. Why did Saddam refuse to go into exile?
A2. Saddam Hussein and his only-aids saw the offer as a provoking demand for surrender. Saddam thought he would be able to withstand the international political pressure and underestimated the resolve of the U.S.-led coalition to invade Iraq in full force.
Q3. What if the peace plan had worked well and succeeded?
A3. If Saddam accepted it, his government would have been replaced, under the auspices of the UN and Arab League. This move would have ended the main motivation for the invasion, maintained Iraq’s democracy and avoided years of bloodshed in the region.
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